Monday, October 11, 2004

Fred @ FlatiRon Parnters

From: Aldo Castaneda
Date: Mon Oct 11, 2004 2:50:14 PM US/Eastern
To: fred@flatironpartners.com
Cc: Aldo Castañeda
Subject: Financing and early stage Open Source Development Projects - What Kim Polese might be missing!

Fred,

I read your posts about Open Source and selling MSFT. Thus this message to you.

As someone who is clearly expert in issues having to do with early stage financing of technology ventures I would like to know if you've ever run across the following concept. If it's novel I take credit for it, if not I take credit for not being well informed. Either way it would be valuable to me to know if you have run or do run across what I'm about to describe.

The basic concept:

1) (Premise) The Net/Web (call it what you want) is more than anything a hyper efficient technology for measuring the value of ideas. The following conceptualization might help you understand what I mean.

Example: Someone has an idea (Adam Curry wakes up with the idea of www.iPodder.org ), he codes and early version and then sends his idea (manifested in code) to Dave Winer. Dave Winer changes the code slightly or sends it to a coder that does. This process continues and the idea grows. The "residue" of all of this activity is code and a variety of interactions (be they websites what have you).

2) My point is that, because the technology provides a means to measure and track all of this interaction around an idea at limited cost, one can measure quantify the value of an idea as a function of the activity that results from it. Given a little thought, I think a group of attributes could be defined around this activity that would provide a means to value the core idea and the activity around it. (In considering this notion, I should mention that attributes such as "reputation" of the author and "success of previous code" are all attributes that could be manifested in this concept.....as the "reputational" elements would seem to be very important as a form of "collateral" in a open source environment)

3) In the first phase I would think that one could easily establish a system whereby capital could be efficiently distributed to those ideas/projects that have the most validity/activity. In the spirit of Open Source I believe the first implementation would be a Cooperative that would provide financing to Open Source Coder's whose activity/contribution to an idea warrants investment in the form of a low interest loan. Clearly a system could be established that would allow those who participate in the development of an idea to in effect sell it to someone in your line of work and take it private.

This is the rough sketch of the concept. Given your interest in this area I would be interested in what you think of the above. I have more details on how I might implement this concept in a manner that neither impedes the distributed, self-organizing nature of Open Source Development while not imposing limitations on the freedom of the code.

-Aldo Castañeda

Unleashing the power of the collective

I'm a Dave Winer Coffee Notes and Adam Curry DSC listener. As I witness in amazement the rapid evolution of Adam's core iPodder idea I've been giving quite a bit of thought about how Open Source Developers are in effect individually financing what will at some point (seems inevitable) will become part of a more formal commercial enterprise.

This line of thinking, built in part on Dave Winer's comment about "the link being an elemental part of the web" has led me to conclude that the web/internet/global electronic network i.e. "the link" is a highly efficient means by which the value of ideas can be quantified very soon after their initial gestation from thought to code (machine or otherwise).

Modern corporate law is largely a reflection of the need historically (industrial revolution) to amass large pools of capital needed to see an idea through to its physical manifestation. Today I think one of the fundamental shifts that result form electronic communication and production (production=coding?) is that, from an economic point of view, we can now begin to gauge the economic value of an idea soon after it is manifested by efficiently (i.e. electronically) measuring it's impact by measuring the community activity around it....One tangible example is the source code developed around a core idea (iPodder is a current example).

Isn't this at it's core a concept that strongly aligns with the interests of open sourcer's?

Doesn't it imply a shift to thinking about Open Sourcer's as an inherently different mode of production? A means of production whose economic contribution, flows not from the ability of a group of manager's to organize toward a center, but from a realization that each coder/mode is valuable to the degree that they are free thinking and self-managing (in the sense that they select and organize their resources (coding insight etc) most efficiently away from the management center.

I frankly don't know if this is a new concept...probably not. But as I don't hear much about it I feel compelled to reach the Open Source Community (I've tried to get through to Adam and Dave but they are no doubt way too busy with all the stuff they have going on) because I think THIS SHOULD BE part of the dialogue around open source.

Why?

Because, if the Open Source community can build a system that provides mechanisms for quantifying the activity around the development of a concept AS it gather's steam that ability will allow them, I believe, the ability to leverage that activity to attract funding at a very early stage and in a form that I believe will support the distributed and open attributes that Open Sources seem to value most.

Today that funding seems to flow from developer's tangential economic activities, if that is so, wouldn't it be desirable to create a system that would allow these individuals to focus more of their energy on the projects that they love in a way that wouldn't constrain them in say a corporate centralized structure?

From a very practical perspective I view the first manifestation of this concept around a two prongs, one is how to measure an online communities activity around a new concept (I'm thinking iPodder is a great case study) and two, the development of a hybrid micro-lending institution, that would allow Open Sources developers to both deposit funds and draw funds based on their activities in a given Open Source Project.

....that's a VERY rough sketch.

I listened to Kim Polese on the Gilmore Gang recently and while her company sounds promising it do not address the economics that are to drive the early development of in her words "stacks." If Open Source is a new model for development (rhetorical question), then I believe we must begin to understand the economics of this new mode of production from inception to implementation. I believe this particularly important to organizations that seek to "live off of" the early phase development that occurs before code is made "consumable" by large economic entitites.

Thanks.

-Aldo Casta�eda

Aren't we talking about a revolution?

(Working Draft)

Alternative for financing Open Source? Or just a pyramid scheme?

Aldo F. Castañeda
October 7, 2004
Medfield, Massachusetts

I. INTRODUCTION

I contend that the efficiency of the Open Source Development process is impeded by a lack of ready access to capital. Resulting largely from a failure to recognize the efficiency with which the global electronic digital network provides a means to attribute economic value to the hierarchy of self-selecting and self-organizing interrelationships that Open Source Development implies.

I base this concept on a number of as yet unproven assumptions.

FIRST, at their embryonic stage Open Source Projects begin as an idea in an Author’s mind, an idea sufficiently compelling result in code. (NOTE: While I propose that this financial concept is most readily applied to Open Source Development, I suspect that if it is valid in this context it might well be abstracted to the financing of other collaborative creative endeavors based on common spoken non-machine language (text/voice.)(SUB-NOTE: Perhaps it’s worth developing the idea that the shift in the cost of the means of production to relatively inexpensive together with low cost real time communications is at the heart of this entire concept?)

SECOND, Authors who manifest their ideas in code validate their ideas, whether or not motivated by profit, will seek validation by sharing their code openly. (Is this particularly true of source code? My hunch is that because source code is always basically functional in that it instructs a machine to perform a given set of functions, the Author’s of a piece of code will only really understand the validity of their concept through it’s wide spread adoption).

THIRD, when shared the value of the Author’s concept is reflected by the degree to which other’s choose to participate in the author’s core concept. A critical distinction here is that in the online world, unlike its physical analog, the sharing of the author’s concept and the adoption of it can be efficiently measured throughout it’s lifetime. I can not say at this point what a good yardstick might be, I merely suggest that “sharing stage” and throughout the life cycle of the “code/concept” it would be possible to measure the value of the concept, by such attributes as how many coders add their own code to the creators original concept, how many users download the code, how many organizations employ the concept to profitable ends et cetera. (Note: I am neither an accomplished coder nor a learned economist therefore I believe that defining a metric that reflects the value of a concept is something that will require much input).

FOURTH, if other’s adopt the author’s concept/code and presuming that the Author maintains an ongoing role in the evolution of the concept, I assert that in doing so the Author’s investment in the concept is proportional to the time invested in it. I assert further that this is also true relative to the other “participants” in the evolving concept, I am referring here to the other coders that have chosen to add their own code to that of the Author.

FIFTH, it is this web of self-selecting, self-organizing relationships around a core concept that creates a community of aligned interest i.e. manifested in code. The total value of which is measurable as a function of the community’s size (number of participants) and each participant’s commitment to it (Note: Is commitment a purely subjective measure defined by those most invested in the concept?). Visually this concept might be envisioned as a web of links radiating from a center, however unlike a spider web one should envision a hierarchical web, just imagine that you are pulling at the center of the web so what was once flat is now a cone or hierarchy of interconnections. The concept of a cone is important because it reflects the concept that the author of the concept has relative to the rest of the participants the greatest sense of ownership in the concept and therefore the most interest is channeling the efficient application of resources to the evolution of the concept.
If that that assertion is accurate, the Author, is optimally situated to select those individuals in this self-selected community who have, relative to all other’s contributed the most to the evolution of the core concept (while there may be some subjective criteria, I think it is important to balance objective criteria as well so as to diminish the imposition of impropriety). The number of individuals that the Author can select should be a function of the size of the total community, so that as the community around the core concept grows, the Author can assign more “key contributors” as it grows.
Continuing this visualization, looking next at the group of individuals who represented the first set of connections (those that the Author recognizes as most committed to the core concept), those individuals by their very presence near the center by definition have contributed and most invested to the concept relative to the entire world save only the Author. Therefore they too, like the author are allotted the right to select a number of individuals (based on the same formula as above) who they deem to have contributed the most to the project. Again the number of individuals they can pick is a function of the overall size of the community but because they are not the Author that “right” is diminished to some degree relative to the center.
This notion of establishing a hierarchy of relationships established by individual who represent relationships one level closer to the center continues until all the participants are represented. One might envision at the farthest points, participants whose main contribution is writing a bug report i.e. a very limited investment in their time.

SIXTH: Theoretically once described this hierarchy of relationships establishes a means to assign quantitative values to both the relative contributions of each individual and by means of the number of participants and the adoption of the code to the group as a whole. The predictive accuracy of this model results in large part from the efficiency with which the strength of these relationships can be measured dynamically. Arguable the frequency and composition of the code revisions themselves, to the degree that they accurately reflect contributions from the community could be used as a means to automatically update each participants relative contribution. Distribution of each code revision to the degree that it could be recorded could provide a measure of the value of the total value of the community’s productive effort.

II. THE FINANCIAL SIGNIFNICANCE

As with any projection into the future, subjective judgments must be made. Therefore the system that I have described is not by itself predictive of the economic value of an idea. Instead, it is a method for ascribing value to the commitments of a community of actors each of whom perceives value in contributing their resources to the development of what in the final analysis boils down to an idea. It would be absurd to suggest that group commitment to the development of an idea is proof of it’s value, at the same time the quantifiable commitment of a community to the development of an idea by definition is at least descriptive if not in some respects predictive of it’s value. Value that has, as far as I know, remained financially unavailable to the very individuals who most perceive it.

To that end, I believe a financial model exists to enable the participants of Open Source Development projects to gain financial leverage from their commitments to these development efforts, while offering financial incentives to those who seek to employ their financial resources profitably.

(Should consider here that this is a lending model and therefore does not include a concept of a residual owner (like a stockholder in a Corp) who seeks to maximize profits. Therefore this system will likely be funded by creditors not “investors”. (Note: Make sure to change “investor” to “creditor”…maybe the concept of a residual owner should be addressed so as to allow development community participants the greatest financial flexibility?)

III. GUIDING PRINCIPLES

What follows is a brief description of some of the core principles of the financial model that I propose:

Provide access to capital, to the Open Source Community in a manner that in NO WAY impedes but in fact draws stability from the self-organizing, open and distributed nature of Open Source development process itself.

Access to capital provided in a way that neither hinders the informal connections between Open Source developers nor impedes the free sharing and distribution of the source code (For example lending of capital would not in any way restrict rights as defined under GNU copyright)

Provide access to financing to a large number of the active open source development coders and projects

IV. Some Features for Describing Risk
V. (continue here next……)











Other Notes:

- Describe the self-reinforcing properties of this system more clearly.
- What about opportunities to “microfund” the project community via a “PayPal” type system? Then the lending can be many to many – this touches upon the limitations of a model where a single coder produces the code and then just sells it. This actor will likely just start a regular for profit organization, this proposal provides a means to distribute payments among all participants without constraints associated with working in a more formalized business structure.